Abit of maths. Your current tyres are 7" plus 115.5mm tyre wall from the centre. This is 29cm from centre to the top of the tyre.
As you are now running 15's (1inch bigger than 14's!) the tyre will now be 12.5mm closer to the wheel arch, if you were still using the same spec tyres. With the tyres you have on these alloys, you have 7.5" plus 126.75mm, so this is 31.4cm from the centre, or basicly 2.4cm closer to your arch.
Tyre size really depends on suspension travel/ width, as over a bump on full lock you are more likely to catch your arch is a wide tyre than you would with a narrower tyre, so although you might get the height to match your existing wheels, the additional width might be what causes you the issues.
195/50/15 = 28.5cm from centre, so slightly more arch gap than your current wheels (5mm)
195/40/15 = 26.6cm from centre, so quite abit difference, an extra 24mm arch gap.
Personaly, I would go for the 195/50/15 as you shouldn't encounter issues due to the extra width, arch gap will be about the same and the tyres will also be cheaper that the 40's.
Hope that helps!